What this data can - and cannot - tell you
The data can flag districts where business supply looks relatively scarce and where market capacity or momentum may support a closer look. It cannot prove unmet consumer demand, profitability, site readiness, workforce availability, financing, or the need for a particular business.
Data Notes
Separate ranking universes
House districts are compared only with House districts; Senate districts are compared only with Senate districts.
Coverage
The certified index contains 181 districts and passed the population-weighted ZBP coverage gates.
Missing source rows
Missing ZBP source rows are not treated as zero establishments.
Use
This is a relative supply-gap indicator, not a guarantee of profitability or unmet consumer demand.
What is ZBP?
ZIP Code Business Patterns (ZBP) is a U.S. Census Bureau business dataset that reports employer business activity by ZIP code, including employer establishments, employment and payroll. In this index, ZBP is used as one measure of employer-business supply and ten-year business growth.
Important: ZBP counts employer establishments. It is not a count of every business or self-employed person. The index also uses the separate NDS physical-establishment dataset as an additional business-supply measure.
What do the Supply Gap levels mean?
Supply Gap levels are relative to other districts in the same chamber. House districts are compared with House districts; Senate districts are compared with Senate districts.
| Level | Chamber position | Plain-language meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Very High Supply Gap | 80th percentile and above | One of the strongest signals of comparatively low business supply combined with stronger income capacity and business momentum. |
| High Supply Gap | 60th to below 80th percentile | Above-average evidence of a business supply gap. |
| Moderate Supply Gap | 40th to below 60th percentile | Near the middle of the chamber-relative distribution. |
| Low Supply Gap | 20th to below 40th percentile | Below-average evidence of a business supply gap. |
| Very Low Supply Gap | Below 20th percentile | One of the weakest chamber-relative supply-gap signals. |
A high Supply Gap is a relative market signal. It does not guarantee that a business will succeed, that a market is profitable, or that consumer demand is unmet.